電気学会全国大会講演要旨
6-084
Study on Day-ahead and Hour-ahead Forecasts of Insolation in Tsukuba
○ガリダシルバフォンセカジュニアジョアン(東京大学)・大関 崇・大竹秀明(産業技術総合研究所)・荻本和彦(東京大学)
Forecasts of insolation have a wide range of applications. With the dissemination of photovoltaic, PV, systems such forecasts also becoming important in the renewable energy field. In previous studies we developed a method to forecast hourly insolation, one-day ahead of time. Currently, we are modifying the proposed method to apply it in the problem of hour-ahead forecast of insolation. In this short-communication we present a method to forecast insolation one hour ahead of time, and we evaluate its performance with 1 year of data of Tsukuba city. Finally, we discuss the accuracy of the forecasts and the error reduction that occurs when changing the forecast horizon from 1 day ahead to 1 hour ahead of time.